11-24
2022
Do you know the management requirements for magnesium welding wire? Save this now!
Magnesium welding wire is a metallic product; although most solid-core and seamless flux-cored wires have copper-plated surfaces, some flux-cored wires feature rust-resistant surface treatments (such as chemical blackening). To ensure the quality of welded structures, in addition to selecting appropriate welding consumables, it is also essential to pay close attention to the storage and quality management of these materials during the welding process.
11-15
2022
A Comprehensive Overview of Magnesium Welding Wire Categories—Save This Now!
Magnesium welding wire is used as a conductive filler metal or welding wire in gas welding and tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding. In submerged arc welding, electroslag welding, and other gas-shielded welding processes, it serves both as a filler metal and as a conductive electrode. The surface of magnesium welding wire is not coated with an anti-oxidation flux.
11-04
2022
What are the key characteristics of magnesium anode rods?
Magnesium anodes exhibit excellent corrosion resistance, thermal insulation, and mechanical properties during use. Consequently, magnesium anodes make exceptionally effective outdoor survival flint stones: if you simply hold a lighter to it, it will not ignite on its own. However, it’s important to note that the flint can only be ignited through a specific technique. Alternatively, you can submerge the flint in water, then retrieve and thoroughly dry it—after which it remains fully functional.
10-20
2022
Aluminum: No Obvious Supply-Demand Imbalance; Futures Prices Likely to Trade in a Range
Shanghai aluminum staged a rebound after November, with the main contract price climbing as high as RMB 19,245 per tonne. However, as the month drew to a close, upward momentum weakened, and the market entered a phase of volatile consolidation. Given the limited number of positive factors ahead, Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in a narrow range for the time being. I. RRR Cut Signals Ease Domestic Economic Downward Pressure On the macro front, the People’s Bank of China announced on December 5, 2022, a reduction of the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points. This RRR cut underscores the forward-looking nature of monetary policy and demonstrates its strategic resolve, helping to stabilize market expectations and carrying significant policy implications. Although this is a broad-based RRR cut, it does not signal a shift in monetary policy; going forward, monetary policy will remain prudent. Should the medium-term lending facility rate be lowered later this year, policy support could strengthen next year. As for Shanghai aluminum, the RRR cut will help offset some of the downward pressure on the domestic economy, but its direct positive impact on the market is limited. II. Domestic Primary Aluminum Supply Edges Up Domestic primary aluminum supply has seen a modest uptick recently. In Sichuan, operating capacity has recovered slightly, though tight power supplies during the dry season are expected to make full-capacity operation difficult before year-end. Meanwhile, spurred by Guangxi’s newly announced policies to encourage production resumption, alumina smelting projects in the region are likely to accelerate. In Henan, the 80,000-ton capacity reduction has been fully implemented, but the timing of restart remains uncertain. In Guizhou and Inner Mongolia, new capacity coming online has lagged behind expectations. Overall, amid both increases and decreases, domestic primary aluminum operating capacity has remained relatively stable. November’s estimated operating capacity is 40.51 million tonnes, still short of the previously anticipated annualized level of 41 million tonnes. In terms of imports and exports, following a return to net import status in June, October saw net imports reach a year-high of 66,800 tonnes. October’s aluminum imports totaled 67,444 tonnes, down 51.78% year-on-year but up 4.27% month-on-month. From January to October, cumulative aluminum imports amounted to 429,700 tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 66.11%. With the domestic import window nearing opening in October and some previously locked-in cargoes arriving, November imports are expected to continue rising month-on-month. Electricity and alumina costs account for 34% and 32% of total primary aluminum production costs, respectively. Tracking changes in domestic aluminum producers’ costs and profitability reveals that overall costs have declined compared with the same period last year, largely due to lower electricity prices. Although grid electricity rates have remained stable, falling coal prices have driven down power charges at self-owned plants. According to SMM estimates, as of November 25, total domestic primary aluminum production cost stood at RMB 17,815 per tonne, with a profit of RMB 1,215 per tonne—of which electricity accounted for RMB 6,142 and alumina for RMB 5,441. Compared with October 25, costs have fallen by RMB 95.46 per tonne, and by RMB 2,270 per tonne year-on-year. Profits, meanwhile, have risen by RMB 575.46 per tonne since October 25 and by RMB 1,980 per tonne year-on-year. Electricity prices play a crucial role in shaping aluminum costs; coal prices are expected to remain weak in the near term, leaving room for further reductions in thermal power costs. However, given the anticipated rise in alumina prices, the scope for further cost declines is relatively limited. Turning to inventory, as of November 24, social inventories of primary aluminum stood at 518,000 tonnes, continuing the downward trend that began in October. Reduced output from smelters has curbed market supply, while higher aluminum-to-aluminum ingot conversion ratios have also lowered ingot production, meaning that inventory build-up in the near term is unlikely. III. Mixed Performance in Auto Production and Sales Downstream aluminum processing firms in China are currently operating at subdued levels. As of November 24, weekly utilization rates for aluminum extrusion companies stood at 65.8%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week. Weak downstream demand and fewer orders have led to declines across the board, including primary alloys, aluminum extrusions, and aluminum foil producers. Tighter COVID-19 control measures in Shandong and Henan provinces have further hampered shipments for local downstream aluminum firms. In the automotive sector, October saw a stark contrast between traditional gasoline-powered vehicles and new-energy vehicles: sales of the former declined markedly, while the latter surged to record highs. October’s auto production and sales reached 2.599 million and 2.505 million units, respectively—down 2.7% and 4% month-on-month, but up 11.1% and 6.9% year-on-year. From January to October, cumulative production and sales totaled 22.242 million and 21.975 million units, up 7.9% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively—with growth rates expanding by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points compared with the first nine months. Although end-market pressures caused a slight drop in auto supply in October versus September, the continued implementation of reduced vehicle purchase tax incentives helped maintain year-on-year growth in production and sales. China’s auto sales are projected to reach 27 million units this year, up about 3% year-on-year. It remains unclear whether the preferential purchase-tax policy for conventional gasoline cars will be extended next year, while subsidies for new-energy vehicles are set to be introduced, leaving some uncertainty in market expectations. IV. Upside Pressure on Shanghai Aluminum Persists On the macro front, signs of easing inflationary pressure in the United States may give the Federal Reserve more room to slow the pace of rate hikes, further boosting expectations of a dovish turn. Although China’s economy continues to recover, the foundation for recovery remains fragile. On the supply side, several regions have gradually reduced production, and the ramp-up of restarted capacity has been slow, easing supply-side pressure compared with earlier periods. On the demand side, sporadic outbreaks across China have weighed on aluminum market demand, with downstream players wary of high prices and consumption unlikely to shine during the seasonal lull. Overall, with macroeconomic headwinds persisting and supply-demand imbalances easing, Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in a narrow range in the near term. The main Shanghai aluminum contract finds support at RMB 18,200 per tonne and faces resistance at RMB 19,250 per tonne. (Wenhua Finance)
10-13
2022
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the “Implementation Plan for Peaking Carbon Emissions in the Nonferrous Metals Industry” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”). The Plan sets out an initial target: by 2025, the industrial structure and energy consumption structure of the nonferrous metals sector will be significantly optimized, with the share of recycled metal supply reaching over 24%. Several experts told People’s Daily Online Finance that the release of the Plan signifies that, as one of the raw-material industries striving to achieve carbon peaking ahead of others, the nonferrous metals sector will accelerate comprehensive, end-to-end control of carbon emissions—covering total volume, production processes, and source reduction—thereby contributing to China’s overall achievement of carbon peaking. At the same time, the Plan will create new opportunities for the development of China’s green recycled aluminum industry. Strengthening Reduction-and-Replacement Measures for Electrolytic Aluminum: Capping Capacity at the Total Level Carbon emissions in the nonferrous metals sector are concentrated in aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, magnesium, and industrial silicon, with aluminum production consistently being a high-emission, high-energy-consuming process. According to relevant data, as a major producer and consumer of aluminum, China’s aluminum value chain accounts for more than 75% of the entire nonferrous metals industry’s carbon emissions and 6% of the country’s total CO2 emissions. The Plan calls for continuing to impose strict caps on total electrolytic aluminum capacity, studying differentiated policies for reducing and replacing electrolytic aluminum capacity, holding local governments accountable, and making stringent controls on new electrolytic aluminum capacity a key component of central ecological and environmental protection inspections. Ge Honglin, President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, stated in an interview that electrolytic aluminum output is the key determinant of carbon emissions in the nonferrous metals industry. It is imperative to strictly control electrolytic aluminum capacity, absolutely prohibiting any form of new capacity expansion; similarly, total smelting capacity for copper and other metals must also be tightly regulated, while exploring the establishment of an early-warning mechanism for peak consumption in the nonferrous metals sector. Currently, China’s installed electrolytic aluminum capacity stands at 44.5 million tons per year, nearly reaching the domestic cap of 45 million tons per year. Industry experts say the release of the Plan means that the requirement to cap electrolytic aluminum capacity will be further strengthened. On the one hand, the previous practice of equivalent replacement of electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to gradually shift toward reduction-and-replacement, leading to further overall cuts; on the other hand, incorporating capacity controls into ecological and environmental inspections will help further rein in electrolytic aluminum capacity. Actively Developing a Clean-Energy Substitution System: Accelerating the Exit of Inefficient Capacity The Second Biennial Update Report on Climate Change of the People’s Republic of China shows that energy-related activities are the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions in China, accounting for about 86.8% of the country’s total CO2 emissions. Among these, fossil fuels constitute the bulk of energy-related activities. Fossil fuels happen to be the main sources of fuel and electricity used in China’s nonferrous metals industry. For example, in the case of electrolytic aluminum—the largest electricity consumer—more than 60% of capacity relies on coal-fired captive power generation, resulting in product carbon intensity far higher than that of comparable foreign products using clean energy. Indirect emissions from electricity use account for 85% of electrolytic aluminum’s carbon footprint and over 50% of the nonferrous metals industry’s total emissions. Can we solve the carbon emission problem by eliminating or reducing our reliance on fossil fuels? The focus has shifted to clean energy. Experts point out that renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal power produce no CO2 during operation and are far more environmentally friendly. In recent years, China has been actively developing its renewable energy industry. This same approach of shifting energy types is equally applicable in the nonferrous metals sector. The Plan proposes promoting the substitution of coal with gas and electricity in the nonferrous metals industry, curbing fossil fuel consumption, encouraging enterprises such as electrolytic aluminum producers to relocate in an orderly manner to regions rich in renewable energy, and facilitating the transition from coal-fired captive power to grid-supplied electricity, thereby reducing per-unit carbon emissions at the source. The Plan stipulates that by 2025, the proportion of direct alloying of molten aluminum should increase to over 90%, that tiered electricity pricing and other green tariff policies should be refined, that major industries such as electrolytic aluminum should be guided toward energy conservation and emission reduction, and that the exit of inefficient capacity should be accelerated. At the same time, the construction of coal-fired captive power plants is strictly prohibited, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is encouraged to shift from captive power to grid-supplied electricity, with the goal of achieving renewable energy usage rates of at least 25% in 2025 and 30% in 2030. Industry experts say the Plan requires comprehensive efforts to promote energy conservation and emission reduction across the entire electrolytic aluminum value chain—from production processes to energy sources—potentially further curbing the supply of thermal-power-generated aluminum, boosting the production of green-energy-based aluminum, and benefiting electrolytic aluminum companies currently located in hydropower-rich regions and actively increasing their share of green electricity. Developing the Recycled Aluminum Industry: Unlocking the Future Potential of “Urban Mines” In building a green manufacturing system, beyond aggressively reducing carbon emissions during production, what other areas require sustained effort? The Plan proposes improving recycling and comprehensive utilization systems, establishing resource-integrated utilization bases, deploying regional recycling pre-processing and distribution centers, and raising the level of graded utilization. Jia Mingxing, Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, believes that a well-developed recycling system will guide nonferrous metals producers to adopt green raw and auxiliary materials, technologies, equipment, and logistics; recover “urban mine” resources such as waste household appliances and electronic waste rich in nonferrous metals; establish a green, low-carbon supply chain management system; and promote the green transformation and upgrading of the industrial chain. The Plan sets a target of 11.5 million tons of recycled aluminum production by 2025 and proposes studying the inclusion of key nonferrous metal varieties in the national carbon emissions trading market. Industry experts believe that recycled aluminum offers significant emission-reduction advantages, with per-unit carbon emissions only 2% of those of primary aluminum, and that substituting primary aluminum with recycled aluminum can effectively reduce carbon emissions at the source. Experts say that China’s electrolytic aluminum supply side is poised for a transformation, with the development of green recycled aluminum accelerating domestically and incremental electrolytic aluminum capacity likely to shift overseas in the future. (Yousebao)
09-22
2022
Outlook for Aluminum Prices from Both Bulls and Bears
Recently, domestic Shanghai aluminum prices have been locked in a tight tug-of-war around the RMB 19,000 per tonne level. Based on position data as of Monday’s close this week, both long and short positions remain evenly matched, with no significant reduction in either side’s holdings. Let us now examine the key rationales behind the bullish and bearish views. I. Low Inventories Continue to Support Aluminum Prices For the bulls, the most significant fundamental tailwind is the ongoing decline in social inventories. On November 21, SMM reported that China’s total electrolytic aluminum social inventory stood at 530,000 tonnes, down 17,000 tonnes from the previous Thursday and 82,000 tonnes month-on-month, while also marking a year-on-year drop of 497,000 tonnes. Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories have hit new lows consecutively, currently standing at 530,000 tonnes—levels not seen in the same period in previous years or since 2022. Regionally, Wuxi has led the drawdown, primarily due to persistently low inbound shipments; according to market sources, once shipments resumed from Gongyi, some of the volume previously destined for Wuxi was redirected there, keeping overall inventory levels on a downward trajectory. In terms of outbound shipments, Wuxi continues to ship around 45,000 tonnes per week, slightly lower than the previous week but still within the average range; Gongyi’s inventory increased marginally by 1,000 tonnes from the previous Thursday, remaining at about 62,000 tonnes, though additional cargo en route is expected to arrive in the coming days, so future inventory changes will warrant close monitoring; in Foshan, aluminum billets have begun arriving steadily, yet ingot inventories remain low, down 6,000 tonnes week-on-week compared with the previous Thursday. Overall, although some areas in Northwest China have lifted lockdowns and transportation is gradually resuming, leading to an anticipated surge in deliveries of ingots and billets, the expected build-up in inventories has yet to materialize—instead, inventories are declining, which provides strong support for aluminum prices. II. Slow Demand Recovery Weighs on Aluminum Prices For the bears, demand has been a major drag on aluminum prices this year. Both macroeconomic indicators and micro-level downstream operating rates have generally underperformed. In particular, the real estate sector is in a downturn, compounded by intermittent COVID-19 outbreaks, which have significantly dampened downstream aluminum consumption. According to SMM survey data, as of November 17, the operating rate among China’s leading downstream aluminum processing firms stood at 67.1%. By segment, the aluminum foil sector saw a slight weekly decline, mainly because it has entered the traditional off-season for consumption, weakening market demand and prompting companies to cut output. Other segments largely maintained stable operating rates; recently, with aluminum prices trending higher, downstream buyers of aluminum plate and strip have become more active, whereas downstream players in the aluminum wire/cable and aluminum extrusion sectors remain relatively cautious. Insufficient demand in the primary and recycled alloy segments continues to cap upward pressure on operating rates, resulting in a moderate but steady decline in the short term. III. Key Variables Affecting the Outlook Breaking the current stalemate will require new external catalysts. From a fundamental perspective, the bulls are pinning their hopes on supply-side production cuts and rising production costs. On the supply side, we have already seen reductions in Sichuan and Yunnan due to hydropower shortages, as well as in Henan owing to losses; additional potential supply constraints include production cuts by electrolytic aluminum producers during the heating season and in response to unexpected incidents. According to SMM statistics, as of early November, China’s installed electrolytic aluminum capacity totaled 45.16 million tonnes, with 40.34 million tonnes currently in operation, yielding a national utilization rate of approximately 89.4%. In the short term, however, the likelihood of large-scale production cuts remains low. Another factor to watch is cost dynamics: currently, major alumina-producing regions across China are experiencing varying degrees of loss, and with the onset of the northern heating season, alumina producers face mounting pressure to curtail output. Should such cuts be substantial, alumina prices could stabilize and even rebound, thereby pushing up electrolytic aluminum costs. On the other hand, the bears are counting on unexpectedly rapid inventory build-ups and falling production costs. As discussed earlier, logistical challenges have delayed the anticipated accumulation of social inventories, and if this trend reverses—or worse, if inventories rise beyond expectations—the bears will have a powerful tool to push prices lower. In addition, coal prices, a key component of electrolytic aluminum production costs, have remained stubbornly high; should coal prices fall more sharply than expected, this would help drive down overall production costs, much like the synchronized price declines seen in the fourth quarter of last year. Beyond these fundamental factors, macroeconomic developments also deserve close attention. Notably, China is set to convene its annual Economic Work Conference in December to map out next year’s economic agenda, and market sentiment is broadly optimistic about China’s growth prospects for 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its final rate hike of the year in December, with widespread anticipation that the pace of tightening will subsequently slow. Which direction aluminum prices ultimately take remains to be seen! (Zhongyuan Futures)
09-19
2022
Turbulence on the supply side is brewing again—what lies ahead for aluminum prices?
At the beginning of this month, LME aluminum performed remarkably well within the nonferrous metals sector. Influenced by Hydro’s decision to further expand production cuts and reports that the LME may ban trading in Russian metals, concerns over overseas supply intensified, driving LME aluminum up by more than 8% at one point. On Monday this week, Shanghai aluminum followed suit, rising 1.56% on the back of these developments. However, as holiday-related positive factors were digested and domestic COVID-19 cases began to resurge, Shanghai aluminum fell for two consecutive days, giving up its earlier gains. Meanwhile, LME aluminum posted a modest weekly gain, marking its second straight weekly increase. Europe’s energy shortage remains difficult to alleviate, leaving European aluminum producers still at risk of further output reductions. Natural gas accounts for more than 20% of Europe’s electricity generation. As of October 10, the closing price of IPE UK natural gas futures reached 298 pence per therm, up 86% from the start of the year. Persistently high power costs have prompted overseas aluminum producers to continue expanding production cuts; by mid-September, European primary aluminum smelters had collectively cut output by nearly 1.5 million tonnes, representing 15% of the region’s total installed capacity. On September 26, natural gas leaks occurred in two undersea pipelines transporting Russian gas to Europe, with no prospect of immediate restart. With the heating season approaching, reduced gas supplies combined with the unstable Russia-Ukraine situation are keeping power costs elevated, meaning European aluminum producers still face the risk of further production cuts. On September 30, market sources reported that the LME is considering removing Rusal-produced aluminum from its delivery roster. Russia is a major aluminum producer, with Rusal boasting an annual capacity of about 4.5 million tonnes—making it the world’s largest aluminum producer outside China and accounting for 6% of global supply, or 13% of non-Chinese primary aluminum capacity. From January to August 2022, China’s cumulative imports of primary aluminum totaled 297,600 tonnes, with Rusal accounting for 77% of the country’s total imports. Should this metal ban be formally implemented, there is a possibility that some of Rusal’s output could flow into China. Notably, China’s reliance on imported primary aluminum is low, representing only about 3% of total supply, so the focus should remain on domestic supply. Figure 1: List of Overseas Primary Aluminum Production Cuts in 2021–2022. Data source: SMM, Funeng Futures. Domestic primary aluminum supply surplus has eased somewhat. From January to September 2022, cumulative primary aluminum output reached 29.8895 million tonnes, up 2.76% year-on-year. This year, China’s “dual control” policy has been relaxed, allowing primary aluminum capacity to be steadily released, which had previously put significant pressure on the supply side. However, following Sichuan’s production cuts in August, Yunnan expanded its output reductions in September; currently, most Yunnan-based aluminum producers have cut output by 20%, totaling 1.3 million tonnes, and it is unlikely they will resume production during the dry season ahead. As a result, China’s operating primary aluminum capacity rapidly declined to 40.227 million tonnes in September, significantly easing supply pressures. The full-year forecast for primary aluminum output has been revised down to 40 million tonnes, up 2.64% year-on-year. Figure 2: China’s Operating Primary Aluminum Capacity (in 10,000 tonnes). Data source: Tonghuashun, Funeng Futures. Affected by the warehouse incident at the end of May, hidden inventories of primary aluminum have increased, while social inventories have remained low. Since August, production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan due to power shortages have led to a reduction in aluminum supply, resulting in slower-than-expected inventory builds. As of October 10, China’s social primary aluminum inventory stood at 672,000 tonnes, down 191,000 tonnes from the same period last year; it is expected to hover around 720,000 tonnes by the end of October. Figure 3: China’s Social Primary Aluminum Inventory (in 10,000 tonnes). Data source: SMM, Funeng Futures. Electricity prices still have room to rise, keeping primary aluminum costs relatively firm. In September, the average smelting cost for primary aluminum was RMB 17,800 per tonne, with electricity accounting for the largest share at 34.36% of total costs, followed by alumina at 31.66%, and prebaked anodes at 19.57%. On the electricity front, tight coal supplies continue to drive up power costs. Strong thermal coal prices coupled with water shortages in Yunnan’s hydropower sector suggest that electricity prices are likely to keep rising. Figure 4: Qinhuangdao 5500 Thermal Coal Price (RMB per tonne). Data source: Tonghuashun, Funeng Futures. As for alumina, China’s alumina output from January to August 2022 reached 54.443 million tonnes, up 4.2% year-on-year. This year, new alumina capacity coming online is expected to total 13.2 million tonnes, but due to scarce domestic bauxite resources and increasing difficulties in procuring spot overseas bauxite, bauxite supply remains tight, forcing some producers to cut output because of raw material shortages. At the same time, rising electricity and bauxite prices have pushed alumina capacity subject to cost-driven cuts to around 2.9 million tonnes, slightly easing the oversupply outlook for alumina. Overall, however, the oversupply situation for alumina is unlikely to change, and alumina prices are expected to trend downward in a volatile manner through October. Figure 5: Alumina Prices (RMB per tonne) and Alumina Output (in 10,000 tonnes). Data source: Tonghuashun, Funeng Futures. Overall, although alumina prices are trending lower, with power plants increasingly using higher-priced coal, electricity prices are likely to continue rising. Meanwhile, prebaked anode costs are being supported by higher prices for petroleum coke and coal tar pitch, further bolstering their price stability and keeping primary aluminum costs relatively firm. Figure 6: Primary Aluminum Costs (RMB per tonne). Data source: Tonghuashun, Funeng Futures. Downstream aluminum consumption continued to show marginal improvement in October. With power restrictions easing, new orders for downstream aluminum processing industries improved in September, pushing the composite PMI for China’s downstream aluminum sector up by 12.4 percentage points month-on-month to 57.9. Based on current order intake and production schedules, downstream aluminum consumption is expected to remain marginally better in October, though still below levels seen in previous years. The real estate sector continues to roll out favorable policies, boosting housing demand. From January to August 2022, nationwide completed housing area and new construction starts fell by 21.1% and 37.2% year-on-year, respectively. On the completion side, driven by local governments’ “guaranteed delivery” requirements, the market is gradually recovering and showing signs of improvement compared with July. On the sales side, government measures such as lowering down-payment ratios and reducing first-home public housing loan rates by 15 basis points indicate a policy shift. It is expected that the real estate market will continue to recover, but substantial improvements in consumer spending will take a long time; overall, real estate is projected to drag down aluminum consumption growth by about 2.3% for the year. From January to August, automobile production totaled 17.35 million units, up 6.4% year-on-year, with most of the growth coming from new-energy vehicles. New-energy vehicle production reached 4.074 million units in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 110.1%. Following the easing of the pandemic and the introduction of intensive auto-consumption stimulus policies in the second quarter, automobile consumption has been strong, and it is estimated that new-energy vehicles will account for 5.18% of total aluminum consumption in 2022, up 2.16 percentage points from the previous quarter. China’s photovoltaic installations continue to surge, with cumulative additions reaching 44.47 GW from January to August, up 101.68% year-on-year. As PV prices and costs continue to fall, demand for PV installations is expected to keep growing, and PV is projected to account for 4.9% of total aluminum consumption in 2022, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year. From January to August 2022, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products totaled approximately 4.7 million tonnes, up 31.5% year-on-year. With overseas aluminum smelters and processors operating below capacity, domestic aluminum product exports are likely to continue benefiting; however, declining export margins and the global economic downturn are expected to weigh on export growth, leading to a further slowdown in aluminum product exports. Overall, demand in key aluminum-consuming sectors such as real estate remains weak. Although new-energy vehicles and PV are increasing their aluminum consumption, their contribution to overall demand is limited. Coupled with weakening overseas demand, aluminum product exports are slowing, making it unlikely that overall demand will improve significantly. Summary Overall, on the macro level, the IMF’s downward revision of global economic growth forecasts, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations of interest-rate hikes, driving the U.S. dollar higher and putting downward pressure on aluminum prices. On the fundamentals front, global primary aluminum supply is set to continue shrinking, Europe’s energy shortage remains unresolved, and aluminum producers still face the risk of further output cuts, with Yunnan in China poised for additional reductions. On the demand side, downstream aluminum consumption has shown some recovery, but overall remains below peak-season levels of previous years. At present, the directional bias is unclear: primary aluminum costs provide strong support, limiting downside potential, while any upside depends on whether domestic consumption can sustain its improvement. We expect aluminum prices to trade in a range of RMB 17,800–19,000 per tonne. (Futures Daily)
08-16
2022
Progress Made in Research on Toughening High-Performance Magnesium Alloys
Magnesium alloys, as the lightest metallic structural materials currently used in engineering applications, meet the long-term weight-reduction targets in fields such as aerospace and rail transportation, thus holding vast application prospects. However, compared with traditional metallic materials like steel and aluminum alloys, magnesium alloys suffer from several notable performance shortcomings, including relatively low absolute mechanical strength, which severely limits their large-scale deployment in these sectors. In recent years, China’s high-end equipment industry has placed increasingly stringent demands on the high-performance and large-component-scale production of lightweight magnesium alloys, making the development of large-size, high-strength and ultra-high-strength magnesium alloy materials for engineering applications a top priority. According to Science and Technology Daily, a reporter learned from Shenyang University of Chemical Technology that Professor Rongguang Li’s team from the School of Mechanical and Power Engineering at the university has recently put forward several academic concepts, including “a strengthening approach that fully exploits the synergy between strong texture and high-density nano-precipitates to fabricate large-size, high-performance Mg–Gd binary alloy bars” and “a mechanism that combines nano-structural-interface segregation with high-density nano-cluster strengthening to produce high-performance Mg–Gd binary alloy sheets.” These research findings provide fundamental theoretical guidance for the development of ultra-high-strength magnesium alloy materials. The relevant results were recently published in Materials Research Letters. To address the preparation technologies and toughening mechanisms of large-size, high-performance magnesium alloy bars, Professor Li’s team collaborated with Northeastern University, Harbin Engineering University, Xi’an Jiaotong University, and other research institutions. By employing a low-temperature extrusion process with a small extrusion ratio combined with aging treatment, they successfully produced large-size Mg–13Gd binary magnesium alloy bars with a mixed-grain microstructure, achieving a yield strength of up to 470 MPa. The study revealed that the high strength of these mixed-grain magnesium alloys primarily stems from the combined effects of high-density nanoscale precipitates within elongated grains and a strong texture. For magnesium alloy sheets, the team conducted an in-depth analysis of the plastic deformation characteristics of ultrafine-grained magnesium–rare-earth alloys and adopted a processing route involving single-pass rolling at 270°C to achieve a 60% reduction in thickness, followed by further processing of the ultrafine-grained alloy. They found that the Mg–15Gd binary alloy sheets produced via this method exhibit a yield strength exceeding 500 MPa, and that after aging, the rolled alloy also shows a trend of texture enhancement. The rolling process promotes the formation of a high volume fraction of low-angle grain boundaries and a high density of dislocations within the fine grains of the ultrafine-grained alloy; during aging, these high-density dislocations effectively facilitate the nucleation and growth of high-density nano-clusters inside the grains. The results indicate that the alloy’s elevated yield strength is attributable to the combined effects of a high content of substructural interfaces and Gd segregation at these interfaces, high-density nano-clusters, high-density submicron dynamic precipitates, and a strong texture. Moreover, the increased formation of low-angle grain boundaries and nano-clusters helps reduce elastic lattice distortion in the matrix, thereby enhancing the alloy’s ductility.
07-27
2022
Tips for using magnesium anodes?
Magnesium anode rods—just by their name, we can tell what they’re used for. They certainly have quite a few advantages and functions, but there are also numerous precautions to take during operation. For example, when first used and not yet familiar with the technique, magnesium anode rods can be somewhat difficult to handle. It’s similar to using a match: different people have different ways of striking it, and the same goes for using a flint...
07-18
2022
The purity of high-purity magnesium oxide products is continuously increasing; however, the fewer bound phases there are, the more unstable the material becomes, which does not necessarily make it suitable for all types of refractory materials. From the perspective of market demand, what is the market outlook for high-purity magnesia with MgO content ≥98%? The product mix of refractory raw materials should align with the demand structure of the raw-material market. Based on the requirements of steelmaking converters, except for the trunnions and slag line on both sides of the converter, high-purity magnesia with MgO content ≥98% should be used...